Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
